Starting Poker Hands Odds
- Starting Poker Hands Odds
- Starting Poker Hand Odds
- Starting Poker Hands Odds Chart
- Poker Starting Hands Odds Calculator
In the poker game of Texas hold 'em, a starting hand consists of two hole cards, which belong solely to the player and remain hidden from the other players. Five community cards are also dealt into play. Betting begins before any of the community cards are exposed, and continues throughout the hand. The player's 'playing hand', which will be compared against that of each competing player, is the best 5-card poker hand available from his two hole cards and the five community cards. Unless otherwise specified, here the term hand applies to the player's two hole cards, or starting hand.
Essentials[edit]
There are 1326 distinct possible combinations of two hole cards from a standard 52-card deck in hold 'em, but since suits have no relative value in this poker variant, many of these hands are identical in value before the flop. For example, A♥J♥ and A♠J♠ are identical in value, because each is a hand consisting of an ace and a jack of the same suit.
Therefore, there are 169 non-equivalent starting hands in hold 'em, which is the sum total of : 13 pocket pairs, 13 × 12 / 2 = 78 suited hands and 78 unsuited hands (13 + 78 + 78 = 169).
These 169 hands are not equally likely. Hold 'em hands are sometimes classified as having one of three 'shapes':
- Pairs, (or 'pocket pairs'), which consist of two cards of the same rank (e.g. 9♠9♣). One hand in 17 will be a pair, each occurring with individual probability 1/221 (P(pair) = 3/51 = 1/17).
- Alternative means of making this calculation
An Euler diagram depicting poker hands and their odds from a typical American 9/6 Jacks or Better machine The following chart enumerates the (absolute) frequency of each hand, given all combinations of 5 cards randomly drawn from a full deck of 52 without replacement. If the poker hand simulator says you only win the hand 19% (4 to 1 odds) of the time, but you had to call a pot-sized bet to see the river (2 to 1 pot odds), then you shouldn’t have made the call. You can also use the poker calculator to help commit common odds and situations to memory.
- First Step
- As confirmed above.
- There are 1326 possible combination of opening hand.
- Second Step
Starting Poker Hands Odds
- There are 6 different combos of each pair. 9h9c, 9h9s, 9h9d, 9c9s, 9c9d, 9d9s. Therefore, there are 78 possible combinations of pocket pairs (6 multiplied by 13 i.e. 22-AA)
- To calculate the odds of being dealt a pair
- 78 (the number of any particular pair being dealt. As above) divided by 1326 (possible opening hands)
- 78/1326 = 0.058 or 5.8%
- Suited hands, which contain two cards of the same suit (e.g. A♣6♣). 23.5% of all starting hands are suited.
Probability of first card is 1.0 (any of the 52 cards)Probability of second hand suit matching the first:There are 13 cards per suit, and one is in your hand leaving 12 remaining of the 51 cards remaining in the deck. 12/51=.2353 or 23.5%
- Offsuit hands, which contain two cards of a different suit and rank (e.g. K♠J♥). 70.6% of all hands are offsuit hands
Offsuit pairs = 78Other offsuit hands = 936
It is typical to abbreviate suited hands in hold 'em by affixing an 's' to the hand, as well as to abbreviate non-suited hands with an 'o' (for offsuit). That is,
- QQ represents any pair of queens,
- KQ represents any king and queen,
- AKo represents any ace and king of different suits, and
- JTs represents any jack and ten of the same suit.
Limit hand rankings[edit]
Some notable theorists and players have created systems to rank the value of starting hands in limit Texas hold'em. These rankings do not apply to no limit play.
Sklansky hand groups[edit]
David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth[1] assigned in 1999 each hand to a group, and proposed all hands in the group could normally be played similarly. Stronger starting hands are identified by a lower number. Hands without a number are the weakest starting hands. As a general rule, books on Texas hold'em present hand strengths starting with the assumption of a nine or ten person table. The table below illustrates the concept:
Chen formula[edit]
The 'Chen Formula' is a way to compute the 'power ratings' of starting hands that was originally developed by Bill Chen.[2]
- Highest Card
- Based on the highest card, assign points as follows:
- Ace = 10 points, K = 8 points, Q = 7 points, J = 6 points.
- 10 through 2, half of face value (10 = 5 points, 9 = 4.5 points, etc.)
- Pairs
- For pairs, multiply the points by 2 (AA=20, KK=16, etc.), with a minimum of 5 points for any pair. 55 is given an extra point (i.e., 6).
- Suited
- Add 2 points for suited cards.
- Closeness
- Subtract 1 point for 1 gappers (AQ, J9)
- 2 points for 2 gappers (J8, AJ).
- 4 points for 3 gappers (J7, 73).
- 5 points for larger gappers, including A2 A3 A4
- Add an extra point if connected or 1-gap and your highest card is lower than Q (since you then can make all higher straights)
Phil Hellmuth's: 'Play Poker Like the Pros'[edit]
Phil Hellmuth's 'Play Poker Like the Pros' book published in 2003.
Tier | Hands | Category |
---|---|---|
1 | AA, KK, AKs, QQ, AK | Top 12 Hands |
2 | JJ, TT, 99 | |
3 | 88, 77, AQs, AQ | |
4 | 66, 55, 44, 33, 22, AJs, ATs, A9s, A8s | Majority Play Hands |
5 | A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KQs, KQ | |
6 | QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s | Suited Connectors |
Statistics based on real online play[edit]
Statistics based on real play with their associated actual value in real bets.[3]
Tier | Hands | Expected Value |
---|---|---|
1 | AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs | 2.32 - 0.78 |
2 | AQs, TT, AK, AJs, KQs, 99 | 0.59 - 0.38 |
3 | ATs, AQ, KJs, 88, KTs, QJs | 0.32 - 0.20 |
4 | A9s, AJ, QTs, KQ, 77, JTs | 0.19 - 0.15 |
5 | A8s, K9s, AT, A5s, A7s | 0.10 - 0.08 |
6 | KJ, 66, T9s, A4s, Q9s | 0.08 - 0.05 |
7 | J9s, QJ, A6s, 55, A3s, K8s, KT | 0.04 - 0.01 |
8 | 98s, T8s, K7s, A2s | 0.00 |
9 | 87s, QT, Q8s, 44, A9, J8s, 76s, JT | (-) 0.02 - 0.03 |
Nicknames for starting hands[edit]
In poker communities, it is common for hole cards to be given nicknames. While most combinations have a nickname, stronger handed nicknames are generally more recognized, the most notable probably being the 'Big Slick' - Ace and King of the same suit, although an Ace-King of any suit combination is less occasionally referred to as an Anna Kournikova, derived from the initials AK and because it 'looks really good but rarely wins.'[4][5] Hands can be named according to their shapes (e.g., paired aces look like 'rockets', paired jacks look like 'fish hooks'); a historic event (e.g., A's and 8's - dead man's hand, representing the hand held by Wild Bill Hickok when he was fatally shot in the back by Jack McCall in 1876); many other reasons like animal names, alliteration and rhyming are also used in nicknames.
Notes[edit]
- ^David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth (1999). Hold 'em Poker for Advanced Players. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-22-1
- ^Hold'em Excellence: From Beginner to Winner by Lou Krieger, Chapter 5, pages 39 - 43, Second Edition
- ^http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker-school/ev-stats/total-stats-by-card/[dead link]
- ^Aspden, Peter (2007-05-19). 'FT Weekend Magazine - Non-fiction: Stakes and chips Las Vegas and the internet have helped poker become the biggest game in town'. Financial Times. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
- ^Martain, Tim (2007-07-15). 'A little luck helps out'. Sunday Tasmanian. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
Poker odds charts come in useful when you want to quickly work out the odds of winning a hand in Texas Hold'em. The most commonly used odds charts are the 'standard poker odds charts' below, which give both the percentage and ratio odds of completing your draw depending on the number of outs you have (see pot odds and drawing hands for more information).
The second set of odds charts highlight interesting odds for different situations in Texas Hold'em. These will help you get to grips with the different likelihood's and chances within the game of poker.
Standard poker odds charts.
Other poker odds charts.
Why use these odds charts?
There are currently many odds charts on the Internet at numerous poker websites. However many of these can be tricky to use. ThePokerBank provides easy to use charts highlighting the key draws on each, which makes them simple and effective to use during play.
I am confident that these odds charts are the easiest charts that you will ever use.
How to use poker odds charts.
Poker odds charts help you to determine how much you can call when trying to complete a drawing hand, such as a flush or a straight draw. By comparing your pot odds with the odds of completing your draw, you can work out whether or not it will be profitable to call certain sized bets from your opponents.
Poker odds charts are most commonly used when working out pot odds.
It is perfectly possible to work out the odds of completing a draw in your head, but these odds charts make things much easier if you are looking for a quick reference or if you're just starting out. However, over time it is a good idea to learn the most common odds so that you no longer have to refer to any charts whilst you play.
Starting Poker Hand Odds
Work out probabilities for yourself.
Don't just take my word for it or settle for the probabilities I've listed on the site, try working out probabilities for yourself. It's not as tricky or mathsy as you might think.
My guide on how to work out preflop hand probabilities gives a nice overview on basic starting hand probabilities. For flop probabilities and the likelihood of different combinations of cards on the flop, try the article on working out flop probabilities.
Starting Poker Hands Odds Chart
Poker Starting Hands Odds Calculator
Go back to the handy Texas Hold'em tools.